Monday, December 26, 2016

Friday, December 23, 2016

Appetite for Risk, Hitting it Hard when Opportunities Arise -- Alex, Chat with Traders

Commentary is opinion only and should not be considered specific investment advice. Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. See the full Risk Disclosure on this website.

Saturday, December 17, 2016

Unbelievable, Futures IO

Commentary is opinion only and should not be considered specific investment advice. Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. See the full Risk Disclosure on this website.

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Prerequisites for taking entries in trading




RISK DISCLOSURE:

Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor.  An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment.  Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones financial security or life style.  Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading.  

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE DISCLAIMER:

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.

NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN; IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK OF ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT TRADING RESULTS.   

Copyright © 2016, J Auto Trading Strategies, LLC.  All Rights Reserved.  No part of this website may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except under the terms of the Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988 or without express written permission of the author.

Sunday, December 4, 2016

Momentum Bollinger Band System


RISK DISCLOSURE:

Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor.  An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment.  Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones financial security or life style.  Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading.  
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE DISCLAIMER:

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.

NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN; IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK OF ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT TRADING RESULTS.   

Copyright © 2016, J Auto Trading Strategies, LLC.  All Rights Reserved.  No part of this website may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except under the terms of the Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988 or without express written permission of the author.

Thursday, December 1, 2016

How to Day Trade a Trend


RISK DISCLOSURE:

Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor.  An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment.  Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones financial security or life style.  Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading.  
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE DISCLAIMER:

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.

NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN; IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK OF ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT TRADING RESULTS.   

Copyright © 2016, J Auto Trading Strategies, LLC.  All Rights Reserved.  No part of this website may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except under the terms of the Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988 or without express written permission of the author.

Thursday, November 24, 2016

Commentary is opinion only and should not be considered specific investment advice. Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. See the full Risk Disclosure on this website.

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Trading Goals

$150K TST Combine Trading Goals


Monthly Income Goal
  • Monthly Profit Target - $20,000
  • Consistency in Methodology and Execution
Monthly Expenses
  • Data & Subscription Fees - $500
  • 20% Profits - $4,000
Annual Profits
  • $186K 


Using NinjaTrader's Market Analyzer with JATS BloodHound Templates


Wednesday, November 2, 2016

Chat with Traders, Adrian

Commentary is opinion only and should not be considered specific investment advice. Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. See the full Risk Disclosure on this website.

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Implied Volatility Vs. Realized Volatility

Implied Volatility Vs. Realized Volatility
Why Premium Sellers Have An Edge
(Study Provided By The Tasty Trade FinancialNetwork)
Implied volatility is described as a one standard deviation annual move. 
One standard deviation encompasses 68.2% of movement, so a one standard deviation range in a stock means that the stock should trade in that range 68.2% of the time. Implied volatility is a forward looking calculation. When implied volatility is high, premium sellers are able to receive higher credits for the sale of their options and the underlying stock can experiences a larger range in which it will trade, increasing probability of success. Selling option premium at one standard deviation creates the starting point for the "profitable range" in which we set up our trades. If we sell an option strategy with option strikes at one standard deviation, we will “expect” to be profitable 68.2% of the time. With this trade setup we can reasonably expect a probability of success of 68.2%.However we have found that in periods of both low and high implied volatility, there exists a large edge between our “expected probabilities of success” and our “actual or realized probabilities of success”
The Study: Does Implied Volatility Understate Realized Volatility?
[I]mplied volatility is almost always higher than actual or realized volatility. This means that if we expect to have a 68.2% probability of success on a particular trade, we end up with an actual or realized probability of success even higher than this. Basically we expect a stock to move in a certain range 68.2% of the time, but in reality, when implied volatility overstates realized volatility, like in this chart, it moves much less than that.
As long as implied volatility continues to be higher than realized volatility, an option premium seller's edge will be maintained. However option premium sellers do not need to rely only on implied volatility staying higher than realized volatility as their only trading edge. 
There are many other factors that give premium sellers a leg up on the rest of the market. So even in periods where realized volatility is higher than implied or expected volatility (1995, 2008, 2013), option premium sellers can still be profitable due to the many other trading edges they experience, including the ability to profit simply from time passing.
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer

Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Futures, options, and spot currency trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this website. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.



Thursday, September 29, 2016

BULLISH Yen Chart Pattern



Ascending Triangle
The ascending triangle is a bullish pattern, which gives an indication that the price of the security is headed higher upon completion. The pattern is formed by two trendlines: a flat trendline being a point of resistance and an ascending trendline acting as a price support.
The price of the security moves between these trendlines until it eventually breaks out to the upside. This pattern will typically be preceded by an upward trend, which makes it a continuation pattern; however, it can be found during a downtrend. 
Figure 2: Ascending triangle

As seen above, the price moves to a high that faces resistance leading to a sell-off to a low. This follows another move higher, which tests the previous level of resistance. Upon failing to move past this level of resistance, the security again sells off - but to a higher low. This continues until the price moves above the level of resistance or the pattern fails.
The most telling part of this pattern is the ascending support line, which gives an indication that sellers are starting to leave the security. After the sellers are knocked out of the market, the buyers can take the price past the resistance level and resume the upward trend.
The pattern is complete upon breakout above the resistance level, but it can fall below the support line (thus breaking the pattern), so be careful when entering prior to breakout.

Read more: Analyzing Chart Patterns: Triangles | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts5.asp#ixzz4LgPBbOLk
Follow us: Investopedia on Facebook

Market Recap - Crude & ES - 9/29/16


Friday, September 2, 2016

How to Get a Quant Edge in Today's Market

See my note below the Webinar Screen



Ok, this guy has a good grasp of long or short trading. This is basically
what I've been doing, except using Higher Time Frame Trend.

Too bad he doesn't have BloodHound, and
our Custom Market Analyzer, Momentum Indicator, Bar Type

and Trading Templates to enter on the smaller time frame to nail those entries.


Commentary is opinion only and should not be considered specific investment advice. Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. See the full Risk Disclosure on this website.

Friday, August 26, 2016

E-Mini S&P 500 Flipping Short

Could the E-Mini finally be making the turn?

Tom Sosnoff


Commentary is opinion only and should not be considered specific investment advice. Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. See the full Risk Disclosure on this website.

Tuesday, August 23, 2016


Commentary is opinion only and should not be considered specific investment advice. Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. See the full Risk Disclosure on this website.

Rock and Roll


Thursday, August 18, 2016

Sunday, August 14, 2016

Trading NQ with Custom Bar Type

A nice bar type to trade NQ.  Measured moves to standard deviation outside 25% Value Area in ranging market.  Nice long or short directional moves outside value.  The Custom Bar Size makes spotting these conditions much easier.


5 Year Note Analysis 8/14/16

5 Year Note - August 14, 2016

One of the best things I can say about trading a directional strategy is the anticipation for a major change in direction on the higher time frame.

Analysis

The 30 year bond could stay bullish in low-growth economic landscape.  But the bad numbers comprising the last low GDP #s were mainly from a lack of business productivity.  And who gives a rat's behind?  Businesses are not investing in R&D at this time in the economic cycle. and there is no heat for overtime.

But -- #1, people are working and, #2 housing numbers are good; and #3 retail sales are fine.

So for me the play is on the short-term 5-year note.  The 5-Year is more subject to short-term volatility off any jawboning of future interest rate hikes.  I'm sure there's no way we will see a September hike.  But, we may start seeing some guiding language.  And, if they were to say something concrete like, as soon as X condition is met, we are moving, it would help the markets adjust.  But I don't care what the jawboning is.

I'm watching my chart for a directional move out of flat on momentum divergence.



Tuesday, August 2, 2016

Trader Talk with Viraj Patel

Commentary is opinion only and should not be considered specific investment advice. Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. See the full Risk Disclosure on this website.

Friday, July 29, 2016

Thursday, July 28, 2016

Chat with 2 Sharks



Commentary is opinion only and should not be considered specific investment advice. Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. See the full Risk Disclosure on this website.

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Blackbird Beta

Blackbird Patch Update - 7/26/16

J Auto Trading Strategies customers testing the Blackbird beta, please contact support@sharkindicators.com for the latest beta release (Beta0.2) which resolved issues affecting the JATS templates.





Premarket Analysis, Tuesday, July 26

I'm getting this posted a little late, and the crude trade worked out for me at first target, so I'm done for the day. Nice.  (The trade actually made it to the second target too.)  This is so powerful.  Having a good understanding of how the price bars print with momentum and volatility at key support and resistance levels.




Thursday, July 21, 2016

Morad

Commentary is opinion only and should not be considered specific investment advice. Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. See the full Risk Disclosure on this website.

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

Mid-Morning Recap


Tech Talk 5.0: Next Generation Financial Technology – CME Group

Tech Talk 5.0: Next Generation Financial Technology – CME Group: Watch an archive of the 2016 Tech Talk event, the cloud and big data, technologies with the potential to revolutionize the industry, and more.
Commentary is opinion only and should not be considered specific investment advice. Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. See the full Risk Disclosure on this website.

Friday, July 15, 2016

Premarket July 15


Ernie Chan on Algorithmic Trading

Commentary is opinion only and should not be considered specific investment advice. Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. See the full Risk Disclosure on this website.

Thursday, July 7, 2016

Sunday, July 3, 2016

Kyle Bass


Head over to Real Vision and check out the interview with Kyle Bass.  It will blow your mind.

Bloomberg and Business Insider and Zero Hedge have also reported on this compelling interview.  

Takeaway's from the Interview:
  • Japan’s Debt Situation
We all know that Japan will never be able to repay 1.1 Quadrillion Yen of debt given their shrinking population ... absent some exogenous event where they invent cold fusion or something they could change the world with technologically that could pay off their debts.  In a normalized economic scenario, they cannot repay their debts.  
  • The Chinese are going to have to accept a devaluation of the yuan.
  • When the Chinese crisis hits, the Chinese are going to have to react similarly to the way central bankers did after the mortgage crisis.
  • "They're going to expand the PBOC's [People's Bank of China] balance sheet. They're going to slash the reserve requirement. They're going to drop the deposit rate to zero. They're going to do everything the US did in our crisis," he said.
  • And it won't look good. "Every single thing the Chinese central bank has to do is currency negative for them."
  • You better get ready. "In the next two years, this is happening. If you want to pretend that it's not going to happen, you're going to do poorly somewhere in your portfolio."
So what should we do while waiting for the Asia financial melt-down?  Bass recommends investing in Gold and commercial residential real estate (not high end luxury).


Gold Chart
JATSHiLoInflectionsBH Template, Solver:  ST Long




Commentary is opinion only and should not be considered specific investment advice. Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. See the full Risk Disclosure on this website.

Thursday, June 30, 2016

NinjaTrader Webinar

Thank you Ninja Trader and Shark Indicators!!!

A Great Webinar Today!


Commentary is opinion only and should not be considered specific investment advice. Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. See the full Risk Disclosure on this website.

Saturday, June 25, 2016

Friday, June 24, 2016

U.K. Prime Minister to Step Down After Brexit Vote

Vote to Leave the EU: BRITAIN VOTES FOR INDEPENDENCE!

Vote to Leave the EU: BRITAIN VOTES FOR INDEPENDENCE!: The United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union. We've done it. When we leave the EU we will at last create the condi...

Largest 1 Day Drop in History for the Pound

This was the start of the selloff when 1.5000 did not hold and the first results came out for the leave vote



Friday, June 17, 2016

Magic Charts



A few hours after I made the video, Gold finally made it back up to the Upper Deviation VWAP level.  Magic.


Saturday, June 11, 2016

Commentary is opinion only and should not be considered specific investment advice. Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. See the full Risk Disclosure on this website.

Weekend Review

Weekend Review



Tuesday, June 7, 2016

Volatility Breakout Strategy for Gold

Volatility Breakout Strategy for Gold


RISK DISCLOSURE:  Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor.  An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment.  Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones financial security or life style.  Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE DISCLAIMER:

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.

NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN; IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK OF ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT TRADING RESULTS.   

Copyright © 2016 J Auto Trading Strategies, LLC.  All Rights Reserved.

No part of this website may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except under the terms of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 or without express written permission of the author.