Sunday, March 27, 2016

Direction Guide Backtest Performance Report

Direction Guide Backtest Result Performance, 3-1-16 thru 3-25-16
Crude, Nymex RTH Session (CDT)
JATSDirectionGuideBH Template:  Solver, Energy



ES, CME U.S. Index Futures RTH Session (CDT)
JATSDirectionGuideBH Template:  Solver, Index Futures



RISK DISCLOSURE:  Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor.  An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment.  Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones financial security or life style.  Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE DISCLAIMER:

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.

NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN; IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK OF ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT TRADING RESULTS.   

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A Preview of James Savage's Range Trading System


Sunday, March 20, 2016

Tuesday, March 8, 2016

Just Follow the River of Gold

Quora Question:

Most of trading is done by big institutional traders, is there a way to determine whether they are buying or selling on volume/price action?

My Answer:

Yes, just follow the order flow/price action trading on one side or the other from the River of Gold.  I call it the River of Gold because this is 25% of the current, developing value area. 



China Trade Balance Report could change market direction

Follow your software signals, but be careful.
The overnight China Trade Balance Report
could change the market direction.  



Sunday, March 6, 2016

Answer to Email Question

Answer to Email Question

To me, trading is really just probability margin trading.  You lean on probabilities of orderly markets that are trending or ranging.  If no order, no trade.  In a trending market, you trade in the direction of previous trend after a pullback.  In a range, you can only sell the tops or buy the bottoms -- until the breakout.  There are plenty of intraday areas that you can trade to.

Trading is learning to identify market state, and use a system that mimicks that price pattern behavior.  So I look for either a directional, trend type of trading day or a ranging, top to bottom, type of price action.

JATSKXDBH Template, Solver KXD 70/30
I use many tricks to keep me visually aware of where I am on the chart.  Simple standard Ninja Trader indicators, like Heiken Ashi, Prior OHLC, Current OHLC, VWAP, Keltner Channel, allow me to get signals at the right direction and location.  If you don't find one of these indicators in your indicator list, just head over to the Ninja Trader Forum and you may find it there in the indicators forum.

I also use two open source third-party indicators, the SuperTrend Indicator and HiLoActivator Indicator from Harry aka Fat Tails at Lizard Trader.  Harry is a custom programmer for Ninja Trader and those indicators can be downloaded at his website.

And I also use two proprietary indicators, the MP Lines Indicator from Fin-Alg and the VWAP Plus Indicator from HighTech Trading.  The mini profiles are customized in the MP Lines indicator.

Customers who purchase JATS BloodHound Templates get a Workspace set up with their charts, with the Market Analyzer and JATS BloodHound Templates preloaded and ready to go.

Here is a short video that follows up on the strategy and some of the solvers.




Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Head scratching all around today, huh?

Head Scratcher ....


JATS CUSTOM, Solver JATS BD
A lot of people were wondering today where the sudden market move came from.  Given that the Fed Chair will appear before Congress on Wednesday to justify raising interest rates in a global recession.  And all the other reasons to get out of a highly over-leveraged market, like the PEG ratio (price/earnings to growth ratio) is at its highest level, EVER.  Like most of the small-caps in the S&P 500 Index have a negative IBIDA, -- get this -- without the energy sector.  Like for a host of any other good reasons, for instance, 

Also, according to the Zero Hedge -- corporate bond refinancings are going through a corporate stock buyback cycle, so then the companies can refinance the new debt through bonds.  Wash, rinse, repeat.  But today's rally can't be just that, can it?  Not with China lowering its reserve ratio requirement and Euro Zone deflation.  It must be a short squeeze.  Or the Fed is trading again ahead of Wednesday.

So thank goodness for BloodHound.  It is the only way to keep your brain out of shorting each inflection at the top.

It also helps to put a large size UniRenko chart up, like the example above, and make sure a candle closes before closing the position.  Trading can be as much of how much risk you assign a trade, and then only trade in one direction.  The UniRenko can be custom fit for your risk.